This is what happens when I leave town...

I'm in an office in the middle of windless Florida. You're welcome to my bay-area comrades.

Corrections and Updates - Cabo Verde predictions

So I found out that I didn't have my bracket set up right. Although they do 4 person heats, they are scored on a 1v1 basis (if I understand properly), so my bracket is all wrong. Oh well, at least the spirit was there. Maybe next year I'll get it right.

In other news, the PWA released exactly how the world title race plays out.

For Kauli to win the title, he would need to win and
- Victor Fernandez would have to place 6th or below
- Campello needs to end up 5th or below

For Ricardo to win he'd need to win outright and
- Victor places 5th or below

For Victor to win, he just needs to place 4th or above.

There are a lot of other scenarios that involve all three of these guys not doing well. Imagine if Robby Swift won currently in 6th place. I think we would need Ricardo, Victor and Kauli to all place outside of the top 10 in order for him to win it all. Given that, my internal computer model tells me that Victor Fernandez has a 73.22001% chance of winning the title.

My forecast for the final top 10 ranking is:

1. Victor
2. Kauli
3. Ricardo
4. Swift
5. Mussolini
6. Pritchard
7. Voget
8. Koster
9. Bruch
10. Skye

Would you change anything about that list?

Bracketology

Lo and behold, a bracket for the single elimination for the final PWA contest in Cabo Verde. I put this together with my rudimentary excel skills because something deep inside compelled me. I'm a fan of sports and speculation in the normal world of football, soccer (for my euro readers) basketball, and sometimes baseball. I've always felt like there is no reason that my obsession and over analysis shouldn't reach into the pro windsurfing world. In this post, I'll be revealing my picks for the Cabo Verde event based upon what I've seen from countless hours of watching windsurfing video and my intuition about the sailors involved and the site of Punta Preta in Cabo Verde. I will probably play favorites based upon sailors I've met, and give them the benefit of the doubt over those I haven't. My American homerism will likely be quickly sniffed out.

So let's first discuss how the spot of Punta Preta Cabo Verde affects the potential outcome of this event. Here's what we know about Punta Preta. This is a point break with Large to Extra Large waves. The wind can be strong, but also not super strong. The wind is very offshore which makes it a little better for wave riding rather than jumping. If someone wants to correct me on these facts, please do! Punta Preta favors starboard tack sailors who are especially good ON the wave. This is an interesting fold because many of the top ten wavesailors on the PWA rankings are there because of their skill on port tack side-on to onshore wave contests, essentially JUMPING contests, not wave riding contests.

What we typically have at Punta Preta is a wave-riding contest. Wave-riding is a very subjective thing to judge. Why? Because a lot of the scoring doesn't circle around the number of turns, or the amplitude of air on an aerial. The judging is mostly about the style. Sure, being around the critical section of the wave is very important. All of these guys can be in the right place, but still a huge question is would the judges rather see a very fast, drivey wave where the sailor covers a ton of ground, lays down big bottom turns and airs out across big lips, or will they be more interested in those slashy top turns, slowly progressing down the wave , but staying very vertical? In my mind, I'm seeing yet another final heat between Josh Angulo and Kauli Seadi that will be pinning those two exact styles against one-another. For first place, yet again.

A bracket is more than a list of names. It's a chance to imagine some of these heats going on. Let's take a look at a couple very interesting first round heats.

Here are two heats in a particular that strike me as very interesting. The top heat with Ojeda, Albeau, Swift and Porcela has some interesting things going on. I'm going to put Ojeda in the "happy to be here" category, because just getting to the event and getting to sail that wave on the sponsor's dime is enough to make anyone happy. He's a Pozo guy. A port tack jumping guy. I don't see him doing much compared to the guys who sail Ho'okipa. He's ranked in the top 10 right now, but that's because most of the tour so far has been jumping contests. Swifty on the other hand is a shoe-in to advance. He's got some of the best stuff for down the line wave sailing of anyone on the tour. The interesting part of this heat is Albeau vs. Porcella. Porcella has tons of experience on starboard tack wave sailing from living on Maui for all these years. He's a fearless, amazing jumper. That said I think of him more of a "soul surfer" type. I can't think of an contest where he's sailed an incredible heat. On the other hand, you have Antoine Albeau, who LIVES for competition in all kinds of sailing. Although he isn't as focused on waves, he can nail backloops with a lot of consistency and he definitely knows how to ride a wave. My brain tells me to pick Albeau for his competitive pedigree, but my heart is going with Porcella on this one.

The next heat is Skye, Lenny, Koster, and Polakow. Wow. Skye is ranked 11, and I think deservedly so, so I'll give the top spot of the heat to the Brit. He spends a good amount of time on Maui, so I think he's a no brainer to advance. What we have otherwise is Lenny and Koster, current wonderkids, and Polakow, former extreme wonderkid. You have the think that Kai and Phillip have got to be thinking of each other as rivals. Kai was the main kid we've been seeing via the Windsurfing Movies, then last year, out of nowhere Koster busts onto the scene landing double forwards seemingly while yawning in the Canary Islands. Koster has won first place in Pozo! Kai hasn't had any competition results that come close to that, so I'm sure he'll have a chip on his shoulder to beat Philip in conditions that perfectly suit his Maui experience. That said, I think they will be competing for 3rd place given Polakow's hefty experience advantage. Neither of the young guns will advance this year. It will be interesting to see how the double elimination bracket will sort itself out to see which one of the two will end up on top for the final standings of the year.

Now I will reveal my final single elimination bracket:


A couple other things to note:

I like Pritchard to have a good outing, that might be me being a homer. He's ridden 10 bajillion starboard tack waves, so you have to like his chances. Marcilio Browne could be out early, and for sure by the 2nd round. I think his recent foot injury is going to be too much to overcome. Bad luck for him, considering what a pleasure he is to watch. The title race is for sure very interesting. Campello in 2nd in wave? Am I seeing things? Victor in first, due to all the port tack jumping. I think Kauli will high-step to the endzone for the victory, but will he get enough points to hold off the kings of jumping and win the championship? Kauli needs to hope these two guys do bad in addition to winning the event!

I believe there will be video broadcast here: http://caboverdeworldcup.com/

Also, if you'd like an excel version of the bracket, email me at catapulting.aaron@gmail.com.

If you pick more brackets correctly than me, I will mail you something San Francisco or windsurfing related.

And to make the post at least somewhat visually interesting, here's a picture of Punta Preta that I did not get permission to use.

I want to go to there.

Mauro2010 part II from Lorzelek on Vimeo.

Looks like Maui but port tack with much longer rides.

Can you name the spot without googling? I couldn't.

Top Ten Twenty-Ten Maui Memories

I just got back from my 3rd trip to Maui to test boards for Windsurfing Magazine. It, as per usual, was awesome.

10. Luggage tag on boom. My flight arrived at 5pm Maui time. I was given a ride to Kanaha, set up on a MauiSails legend 5.0 and a board they just knew I would like. A 30 minute session after a 5 hour flight is definitely a mood enhancer. All I did was switch to my boom, which still had the luggage tag attached to it.


9. Getting body slammed by Jake Miller in a parking lot. I won't say I didn't deserve it, but Jake got the best of me, and both of our elbows were oozing nicely for a few days following.

8. Wine straight from the box. It pours much faster than you'd imagine.

7. Criss-crossing wave ride at Lowers with Josh Sampiero. You might have been able to squint and mistake us for Polakow and Naish crossing at Jaws. Or not, but it was just as fun.

6. Best wave. Being a sub-mediocre surfer means that getting a head high drop and a 10 second ride right along the peeling section pretty much one of the best things that could happen to you.

5. The long paddle to Lowers. The break at Lower Kanaha seems pretty close when you're riding a windsurfer. It's not. But to surf overhead, peeling waves without a crowd, some sort of payment must be made.

4. Dreamy conversations with beginner-hood heroes. When I was a wee-waterstarter in this sport, Kevin Pritchard and Ricardo Campbello were two guys that I aspired to sail like. In one night, I got to chat with both of them for a few minutes. It was awesome.

3. Surprisingly awesome 2011 boards. This year there were a handful of boards that blew my mind. You'll have to get the magazine to find out which ones they were.

2. Levi pretending to recognize me. I helped out with a beach clean up on the North Shore in a program that was help run by the +H2O team. I have maybe briefly met Levi Siver once a couple years ago. In any case I said "what's up", shook his hand and he said, "It's been a while since you've been here." It had been a year, and realistically we hadn't really met. It's ok, he has better things to worry about. Ya know, like being the rockstar of windsurfing.

1. Geordie reunion. My friend Chris from Tynemouth England came back this year, along with his friend Laurence. About a year and a half ago I was swilling ale at a local pub in North England with these two, telling dirty jokes and making fun of each-other's accents. It was awesome to hang out with them and lots of laughs came along with it. It reminded me that windsurfing, for me, isn't about personal achievment. It's about sharing stoke and laughs with good friends.

"Last Month of the Season"

It's the last "official" month of the season, so anything from here on out is the bonus round. I figure if my blog was going to be anemic this year, I'd at least put my session logs up.

This was an El Nino year, which are supposed to be wetter and less windy. The early season was relatively not great, but our summer delivered pretty well and September was also good. I was out of town for work and dealing with real life stuff, so I missed quite a few sessions this month. Also, the trip to PSC cost me a few windsurfing sessions, but it was still fun.

In terms of bay-area sessions it goes like this:

4.7 3
5.0 3
5.6 3

In PSC I got three days on 5.6 and one on 5.0.

September total: 13 sessions

YTD total: 128 sessions.

Early October seems to be set up for wind, let's see how long the bonus round lasts.

Punta San Candlestick

A couple weeks ago I made my first pilgrimage to a place called Punta San Carlos. All windsurfers have heard stories. Wave rides lasting over a minute on both a surf board or a windsurf board. Easy access to a friendly wave that won't crush you if you slip up. Living in a tent for a small part of your life, when nothing matters but the waves that are rolling in at that moment. The wind steadily blows from the perfect direction. The water stays smooth and flat between perfectly spaced sets. It's all true -- well, most of the time.

I made the journey with my buddy Rob, who is the president of windsurfing for the Cal Sailing Club. It's a really long drive. Probably over 20 hours total, including a crazy dirt road at the end of the drive. We camped on the bluff, along with some other folks who've made their temporary homes in this beautiful, yet desolate place. I can see why people go with SoloSports. If you don't have sturdy vehicle, it can be tough to get there. Even my cargo van is making some funny squeaking noises that it didn't used to after the trip.

The week we went was described by the local squatters as "the worst week of the season". We had several days without wind in a row and the waves, at the very biggest, were chest high. The bigger ones were very infrequent. Even though it was flat, I caught waves every day on my 8' surf board when the tide was right. A bigger longboard or a stand up board would have been the weapon of choice. When we showed up, the wind was cranking. I was overpowered on 5.0 and 75l. It was the evening we got there, so we sailed for 45 minutes and decided to set up camp before the sunset, ya know, since we'd be sailing 5.0 or smaller for the whole trip. That was a mistake. The rest of the time there, I was mostly underpowered on 5.6 and my 97L freestyle board. Only 4/8 days we were there had planing wind.

I'm not bitter, but I was on a the verge of insanity after a few days with not much to do in the desert. It's hard living down there. Hot and dry during the day. Cold and wet at night. Beautiful scenery, but it doesn't change very much. Fortunately the people around us were great, we made great friends and ate like kings. It felt like we were part of the 20 or so people who were living on the edge of the world somewhere.

The sailing wasn't all bad. On the last couple of days, I went out slogging for waves on my big board and a 5.6 and caught some memorable down the line rides. I had never had that feeling of being powered up on the wave face quite like this. I can say that "I get it" now when it comes to wave sailing. Instead of being a normal flat water or jumping session in the bay where I'm pushing myself the whole time to make a new maneuver, I was getting out there... waiting for a wave, then screaming down the line with a gigantic smile on my face. No frustration, no high self- expectations about my performance of a specific move, just pure pleasure of combining the things I've learned in surfing and windsurfing the last couple years.

Wave sailing in Punta San Carlos is joyous. I can only imagine what it's like when the conditions are good. I will be back to find out.