Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Corrections and Updates - Cabo Verde predictions

So I found out that I didn't have my bracket set up right. Although they do 4 person heats, they are scored on a 1v1 basis (if I understand properly), so my bracket is all wrong. Oh well, at least the spirit was there. Maybe next year I'll get it right.

In other news, the PWA released exactly how the world title race plays out.

For Kauli to win the title, he would need to win and
- Victor Fernandez would have to place 6th or below
- Campello needs to end up 5th or below

For Ricardo to win he'd need to win outright and
- Victor places 5th or below

For Victor to win, he just needs to place 4th or above.

There are a lot of other scenarios that involve all three of these guys not doing well. Imagine if Robby Swift won currently in 6th place. I think we would need Ricardo, Victor and Kauli to all place outside of the top 10 in order for him to win it all. Given that, my internal computer model tells me that Victor Fernandez has a 73.22001% chance of winning the title.

My forecast for the final top 10 ranking is:

1. Victor
2. Kauli
3. Ricardo
4. Swift
5. Mussolini
6. Pritchard
7. Voget
8. Koster
9. Bruch
10. Skye

Would you change anything about that list?


Fish said...

Big bummer for Campello today. Sailing in meagre 8-12kts winds and was beat by Diony in the first round. Not sure what I think of that. Here is a PWA dedicated regular (Campello) in contention for the World Wave Title, who bows out to Diony (who generally does not compete in the PWA), in shit conditions, thus eliminating his chances. He must feel robbed...

Catapulting Aaron said...

Fish --

Read that and totally concur! I think of Diony as a freestyle guy. But when you go to a competition and watch two guys sail a heat, it's just that. Seems like Diony timed the aerials and Ricardo couldn't put it together today. They probably only scored two waves each.

The good news is Campello has a bright future ahead of him! This year he proved himself as a force in the wave discipline.